Is relocating arena in UNP likely to create NET new activity?

 October 16, 2023

Today's episode of Can You Believe the Arena-Entertainment District Hype?

Can we plunk $200 million of tax payers dollars into a field to move stuff there? Absolutely.  

Will a project bring overall growth to Norman vs. just redistributing where activity is located in Norman? That is the more fundamental question for deciding how to spend tax dollars.

The proponents of public spending and ownership of a UNP arena have noted (1) the UNP district is the biggest retail shopping strip in the state (see it's doing great) and (2) public spending on the North land would attract private investment.

Both of these are true statements, but they overlook the most important factor.... (1) did UNP development lead to overall growth in Norman vs. just redirecting where growth occurred? and (2) would private investment in a UNP arena district create a positive NET benefit for the City as a whole?  

Data-driven analysis and research suggests the answer is NO to both of these questions.

(1) When we look at sales tax revenue growth in the UNP and the City as a whole, we do not see a TIF bump. Instead we see that as UNP grew, the rest of Norman experienced flat growth.  Looks like pure cannibalization.  (see THE graph below).

(2) How much private investment will $200 million in public spending in the UNP bring to the CITY AS A WHOLE?  We don't know how MUCH private spending will occur - $800 million has been suggested, but if and when this happens is just speculation. Recall, we never got the promised lifestyle center that was promised for the UNP TIF district. And we never got reimbursed for putting in the supporting infrastructure. 

The conclusion from data-driven research which looks at what actually happened after sports facilities were built suggest that these projects do NOT payoff from the public budget perspective.  

It is IMPOSSIBLE to calculate return on investment based on speculation of what might (or might not) follow a $200 million public expenditure. 

What we can do is look at the return in terms of tax base on the UNP Development brought to us by OU Foundation and friends.  Recall that the TIF siphon was ended early because it hurt the city budget which could no longer absorb a 10+% diversion to the UNP TIF fund.

If we were going to pick an area of Norman that would most benefit from an infusion of public spending, where would we pick? Right next to an area that is thriving and will be supported going forward with the Norman Forward spending on the Young Family Athletic Center? 

My vote would be to spread some love (via public expenditure) for (1) grocery store/coop near Lindsey and 12th ave SE and (2) improve our transportation service so folks can get to jobs, stores, etc. 

PS - I will see if I can get updated data for this graph.