Responding to McKinney's deflections

 October 15, 2018

Today's episode of Can You Believe the UNP Entertainment District hype?

Mr. Lawrence McKinney responded to my guest column. 
 Lots of deflection (and some accusations).  

No ONE is stopping OU Foundation from sharing the details of their plan with the public or City Council.  

The attempt to create a statutory review committee BEFORE sharing details with the public is political strategy.  The SRC won't give a "fair" assessment.  The SRC Committee will have mostly folks who directly benefit from further subsidizing UNP development and creating a TIF (the school district gets to shelter some property taxes from its cut of the state equalization formula.)   

Why not start with review by the UNP TIF oversight committee? This committee has experience with TIF, the UNP and lots of professional knowledge (economist (not me), lawyer, banker, builder, etc.)

Let's also be careful about "promises" of private investment and certain public spending up front.  The last UNP promise was for an upscale "Lifestyle" center shopping area.  Not an inch has been built and OU Foundation/developer did not have to pay back the penalty for failing to do so. 

Let's measure success following the strong towns approach - how does a project impact the City budget.  Moving where retail growth occurs within Norman does not improve city finances.  Growth in the UNP was likely to happen without a TIF (the consultants noted this in 2006).

Based on our recent experience with UNP developers, how likely is it that $800 million in private investment will actually happen? Projections and promises are not certain ROI.

It is not hard to be against any public funding for relocating the OU Basketball arena based on a review of careful empirical research.  These types of projects don't pay off for professional sports, why would college based venues be different? 

The "other" things that MIGHT happen at the new arena are also PROMISES of "success" in drawing new events in a highly competitive environment.  

Advocates for the UNP arena have offered "projections and promises" as a counter to research on actual impacts on arenas-led development.  

Let's ask for a quality check on those who are making projections.  How reliable have their previous projections and feasibility studies been? (Remember OU Foundation projected a Lifestyle center development in the UNP that never happened).

Don't be fooled by the we need housing arguments either.  The only way to get affordable housing is by intentional design.  The filtering model- build new housing to increase supply and put downward pressure on price - only works if you hold demand steady.  If new housing is for new people moving to Norman, then the increase  in supply won't create affordability (Basic econ 101 - supply AND demand matter).

Don't be fooled by the padding of the project to make the public investment look small.  $200 million is a LOT of tax revenue. 

Tax Increment Financing siphons tax dollars for spending in the TIF district.  There is no promise that we will get net new tax revenue and there is a great chance that the gains in UNP will be offset by losses in activity and businesses in the rest of Norman. 

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me. 

(I wasn't fooled with the UNP promises in the first place, but 5 members of City Council were).

Here is Mr. McKinney's article:
Guest Column: Laying the Cornerstone


Responses to Mr. McKinney: 

LETTER: Mr. McKinney's numbers on entertainment district lack supporting data by Andrew Cullen, October 18, 2023

LETTER: Personal attacks don’t sit well by Paul Thomas Arcaroli, October 18, 2023

Evidence suggests Pro Sports arenas don't payoff, why would 8,000 seat college arena be different?

 October 14, 2023

Today's episode of Can We Believe the Arena-entertainment district hype?

If pro-sports venues are not found to increase economic activity, then why would we think relocating and downsizing to an 8,000 seat capacity OU basketball facility would be different? 

There has been a LOT of research on the economic impacts of sports stadiums/arenas.  These largely fail to find strong positive impacts and place a high level of doubt about the credibility of marketing studies (CSL, Legacy, etc.) which project large economic gains. (There are many reasons why the "studies" paid for by the advocates project unrealistically large gains.  "What do you want the answer to be boss?" ) 

Here's a really neat study that tests the hypothesis that arenas largely redistribute economic activity, but don't generate net increase.  This peer reviewed economic analysis looks at the relocation of the Dallas Cowboy's stadium and its impact on the losing area (Arlington) and the winning area (Dallas-Fort Worth).  Yep, they find negligible positive impacts on the City budgets. 

"We also find that the new stadium increased spending in the accommodation, food services, and entertainment industries, but these were offset by relatively large losses in retail spending."

PS - it also cites my research 🙂 

Bottom line: using public tax dollars to relocate OU basketball from campus to the north area of the UNP district makes no economic sense.  

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-39248-1_9?fbclid=IwAR00vf9S3clLL_OkS-L09Ygz5zYw4j7Dv1I2lwwuqpakm_JpTB4udS_bK_M

Do SEC Basketball Teams travel?

 October 13, 2023

Today's episode of Can You Believe the Arena-Entertainment hype?

Arksansas had the largest average home game attendance among all the SEC men's basketball teams last year. They reported 19,200 paid attendance at every game.  Wow!

Does that mean that SEC teams sell out when Arkansas comes to town?  NOPE, not even for the teams with the largest fan bases, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

Remember, OU wants the City to build (and pay for) what would be the smallest basketball venue in the SEC, with 8,000 capacity (from what I heard).  This is just a bit more than last year's average home game attendance at OU Men's basketball games. 

Even OU does not anticipate larger crowds for men's basketball after switching to the SEC based on their own plans.

Do SEC basketball teams sell out away games? Tennessee doesn't

 October 9, 2023

Today's episode of can you believe the UNP arena hype.

Part of the narrative used to grab tax dollars for a city-owned arena is that "the SEC travels well." The implication being that joining the SEC will lead to more visitors spending $ in Norman. 

If anyone has documentation that SEC basketball travels better than Big 10, the relevant information for the arena scheme, then please share. 

What do we know? When Tennessee travels, there were only sellout crowds for 2 of the 9 SEC away games.  

The proposed 8,000 seating capacity arena is smaller (about the same as Ole Miss) than the crowds that went to see Tennessee play when the team traveled to other SEC arenas.

KU has winning tradition in good old Allen Field house

 October 8, 2023 

Today's episode of can you believe the arena-entertainment district hype?

What makes for a successful basketball program, is it the building or is it the tradition of winning?

Allen Field house is in on campus, right across from the business school (similar to OU's football stadium location).

Allen Field house opened in 1955 and was renovated in 1986, 1994, 1999, 2001.  Below are details of the latest renovation plan. 

KU certainly has no problem being successful with its old school facilities.  

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=730777998721391

Guest Article: Can You Believe the UNP Arena Entertainment District Hype?

October 6, 2023

Today's episode of can you believe the arena hype? 

Thank you to the  Transcript for publishing my article. 

https://www.normantranscript.com/opinion/guest-column-can-you-believe-the-unp-arena-entertainment-district-hype/article_f86fce5e-639e-11ee-bd95-37ab819eab87.html?fbclid=IwAR3e-7ULDhsHFixU7j6KuMyCYoZbPRdh4BDRuWtbfXXylurJf8Sz5g0WDsg

Narratives vs Facts about UNP TIF displacement

 October 4, 2023

Today's episode of "Can you believe the UNP Arena hype?"

There are facts and there are narratives about facts. It is important to know the difference. 

Fact: an empty field along the fast growing interstate did not need public subsidy to create a power retail shopping center anchored by Target - which was moving there with or without the TIF.  Even the consultants at the time noted that the area would develop without TIF.

Fact: not a single INCH of the promised high end retail/lifestyle center has been built.  Not an INCH.  Neighbors you can revisit the promises - "lifestyle" center was the promise not  what we got - an dressed up strip mall with a bunch of stores relocating from the rest of Norman.  

Fact: retail growth, hotels and restaurants in the UNP area is undeniable. The real issue is whether there has been NET growth in Norman as a whole because of the UNP TIF tax diversion.  Did the UNP growth come at the expense of growth in other shopping areas - Ed Noble parkway?  See graph in the comments below which suggest that UNP growth cannibalized growth in the rest of Norman. 

Fact: it is hard to trick markets.  We see growth in SE Norman along Classen and Highway 9 - in undeveloped land without a TIF.  Retail follows market demand. 

Fact: TIF funds are not free money. These are taxes that are diverted from the General fund. At one point the UNP was siphoning about 10% of the general fund.  If we divert 10% of funds to get 7% of GF tax revenues - is that a positive payoff?  

Fact: When we divert general fund revenues, we can't do other things - increase police force, keep up with bridge/road maintenance, etc.  

Fact: there is no evidence that relocating where OU Basketball and gymnastics competitions are played  will lead to NET new spending sufficient to generate a return on the investment to TAXPAYERS.  When the City of Lincoln Nebraska paid to build a new off campus arena with entertainment area, they did not see a change in their growth trend in taxable sales from bars/restaurants, hotels, or car rentals.   

Should Norman do it again? is the better question.  And should taxpayers get to vote on a cost that is bigger than the 15 year Norman Forward program?

[Response to Chip Minty's column in the Norman Transcript]
https://www.normantranscript.com/opinion/guest-column-can-norman-do-it-again/article_b152fa92-6208-11ee-9dd2-37c7d0a0125b.html?fbclid=IwAR3iMGjK-lQOPqzZcdIlC9Irux0mFleKCrGl4KX9XmM86qYeTOo3NMxRSvc